As far as the autumn fertilization of fertilizers in the soil is completed, agricultural producers become interested in nitrogen products and wait for the most favorable time to begin purchasing fertilizers for the spring campaign. Given the current weakening demand for urea and ammonium nitrate in the world market, buyers are counting on a further reduction in the price of nitrogen-containing products on the domestic market.
According to railway forwarders, between January and August 2019, 876 thousand tons of NPK fertilizers were delivered to the Russian market, which is 100 thousand tons more than in the same period last year. The growth in shipments was provided by more active transportation of diammofoski - 85 thousand tons more than in the first eight months of 2018. In addition, the supply of ammophos by rail increased: 535 thousand tons in January - August 2019 compared with 449 thousand .t for the same period of 2018.
The upper limit of the range of quotes for ammonium nitrate on the basis of the fob Black Sea for September 2–13 dropped by $ 2 / t, to $ 183-185 / t. Trading activity on the export market remains low, manufacturers have begun to form stocks of ammonium nitrate in warehouses. In this situation, Russian buyers expect that prices for ammonium nitrate in the domestic market will continue to decline, and this will be a signal for them to decide on the purchase of a product for the spring sowing campaign. Despite the fact that manufacturers did not change the official offer prices for ammonium nitrate during the reporting period, buyers could purchase batches of the product with delivery by rail at 500 rubles / ton cheaper than at the end of August.
Demand in the Russian market is currently weak, and manufacturers replenish stocks, expecting seasonal activation of sales in October. Suppliers still have September volumes available for sale with export shipment from the ports of the Baltic and Black Seas. In January-July, exports of ammonium sulfate decreased by about a third compared to the same period in 2018, to 165 thousand tons from 247 thousand tons, according to GTT. Russian ammonium sulfate was not supplied to Ukraine. Shipments to Kazakhstan increased to 26 thousand tons from 21 thousand tons, to Lithuania - to 22 thousand tons from 19 thousand tons, and to Brazil - decreased to 11 thousand tons from 30 thousand tons.
There is still minimal demand for NPK fertilizers of the brand 10-26-26 on the market, both due to the fact that agricultural producers have already acquired the main volumes, and because of dry weather, which does not allow to begin the active application of fertilizer in the soil, in particular in the central regions countries. Product offer from warehouses of distribution centers decreased, sellers compete in the struggle for the remaining customers, offering fertilizer with delivery to the consumer.
Seasonal demand for ammophos is waning. Considering that the volumes of unsold fertilizer in the warehouses of distribution centers are minimal, sellers mainly kept their offer prices at the level of early September. The most attractive prices were offered to buyers who were ready to purchase wagon shipments of the product on condition of delivery by rail.
According to the data of railway forwarders, 2019 thousand tons of potassium chloride, including imported lots in the amount of 370 thousand tons, were delivered to the Russian market from January to August 124, over the same period of 2018, domestic companies received a total of 361 thousand. tons of potassium chloride, including 123 thousand tons of Belaruskali product. Thus, the lag in the supply of imported products, which at the end of May amounted to 40%, was fully offset by the volume of fertilizers received in the summer.