Consumption of fresh vegetables in Russia will increase to 115 kg per capita by 2028 due to a further increase in the production of greenhouse vegetables, the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank said at the RSHB agricultural session on greenhouse vegetable growing on November 26.
The actual consumption of vegetables in Russia is currently 109 kg per capita. This is 24% less than the norm recommended by the Ministry of Health. At the same time, Russia is already ahead of such countries as Germany, France and Canada in per capita consumption of vegetables.
According to the Center for Industry Expertise (SEE), as the economy recovers and interest in healthy eating grows, vegetable consumption in Russia will increase by about 1% annually and will reach 115 kg per capita by 2028.
The growth in consumption of fresh vegetables will be ensured by an increase in production volumes in greenhouse complexes. According to the forecasts of the Center for Industry Expertise, in the next few years, the production of greenhouse vegetables will increase by an average of 7% per year.
At the same time, the regions of the European part of Russia, the Urals and Western Siberia have the greatest potential in terms of commissioning new capacities, which in total can provide more than 90% of additional volumes of vegetable production, the TsOE reported.
The development of indoor vegetable growing will compensate for the decline in the share of imports and the reduction in production on private subsidiary plots. According to the calculations of the ESC, over the next 5 years, the share of imported vegetables in the Russian market may decrease from 16% to 10%, the volume of vegetables produced on personal subsidiary plots - from 52% to 45%.
Tomatoes will show the best indicator of import substitution. Currently, this vegetable accounts for more than a quarter of the total volume of vegetables imported into the country (558 thousand tons in 2019). According to the forecasts of the CSP experts, by 2025 the volume of harvesting of indoor tomatoes in Russia will grow by 370 thousand tons. This will be achieved by reducing imports by 210 thousand tons (or 38%) - to 347 thousand tons, as well as an increase in consumption by 160 thousand tons.
The volume of import of cucumbers into the country (100 thousand tons in 2019) in 5 years is expected to decrease by almost 3 times - to 36 thousand tons. At the same time, the consumption of this vegetable will grow by 120 thousand tons.