On the last day of January, the All-Russian Agronomic Conference was held in Moscow, the participants of which were representatives of agronomic services, regional ministries and departments of agriculture, heads of agricultural organizations. This meeting traditionally touched on the most pressing issues of the season ended and outlined plans for the near future.
Briefly about the records
The Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Alexander Tkachev, who opened the meeting, began his speech by summing up the results of the past year and recalled season records: in 2017, 134 million tons of grain were collected; 3,6 million tons of soy; 1,5 million tons of rapeseed (50% more than in 2016). Producers of greenhouse vegetables have achieved significant results (an increase of 34% in two years), intensive work is underway in the country to establish gardens (1000 hectares are added each year).
Soy and canola
Speaking about these crops, the Minister of Agriculture called them not only promising, but strategically important for Russia. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the soybean acreage in the country has increased almost sixfold - to 2,6 million hectares. But production volumes remain insufficient: we import more than 2,5 million tons of soybeans annually.
Moreover, this culture remains one of the highest margins. The situation is similar with rapeseed: the sown area is slightly less than 1 million hectares, the import of rapeseed (including seeds) is more than 20 million tons annually, and the import of rapeseed oil is 8 million tons. The existing processing capacities allow increasing the production of rapeseed for processing two to three times. Alexander Tkachev called on all regions that have opportunities for growing soybeans and rapeseed to pay special attention to these crops.
The conversation about soy was continued by Salis Karakotov, General Director of Shchelkovo Agrokhim. In his speech, he emphasized the need to comply with agricultural technology when growing crops. According to S. Karakotov, now the protein content in Russian soybeans remains at the level of 28-32%, while in the world a product with a protein content of at least 40% is in demand. The businessman also pointed to the lag of Russian soybean producers in terms of yield. “It is necessary to achieve a yield of 2 t / ha, then the profitability will be close to 100%,” said the general director of Shchelkovo Agrokhim.
Linen and cotton
The discussion at the All-Russian Agronomic Conference also focused on the cultivation of traditional Russian culture - flax and a fairly new one - cotton.
Petr Chekmarev, Director of the Department of Plant Growing, Mechanization, Chemicalization and Plant Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, spoke about new support measures that are being developed today for the development of flax growing. In particular, it is planned to introduce 20 percent compensation for the construction of seed factories and 50 percent - for the construction of factories for the primary processing of flax. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, next year the production of flax should approximately double compared to the results of the 2017 season.
But the production of cotton in Russia is just beginning. The need to grow this crop, according to Petr Chekmarev, is due to the fact that the main supplier of cotton to the country - Uzbekistan - is actively working on the construction of processing plants and plans to further supply only processed products abroad, thus, a number of industries in Russia may face shortage of raw materials.
In 2018, about 1000 hectares will be allocated for cotton (in the Astrakhan and Volgograd regions). In the future, the area will be increased: according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, in our country there are enough territories (about 200 thousand hectares) that could potentially be used for growing cotton.
Potatoes and vegetables
In 2018, according to the plans of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, potatoes will be placed on an area of 1,27 million hectares (with amendments based on the results of the 2016 agricultural census), slightly less than last year. Petr Chekmarev emphasized the importance of maintaining these indicators, otherwise the country may face the need to increase the import of the product.
The forecast for the sowing area of vegetable crops will also remain practically the same - 653,9 thousand hectares (in 2017 it was 647,6 thousand hectares).
Mineral Fertilizers
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, there is no shortage of mineral fertilizers, as well as rising prices for them in Russia at the start of the 2018 season. About 393 thousand tons of products are already in the warehouses of agricultural producers.
Among the positive trends of the season, according to Igor Kaluzhsky, Chairman of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, there is a decrease in the consumption of nitrate and an increase in the consumption of urea and urea-ammonium mixture, which will undoubtedly have a positive effect on the quality of grown products.
Support measures
This year, 11,34 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget to support agricultural producers (subsidies for providing unrelated support to agricultural producers in the field of crop production). To date, 2 billion rubles. unrelated support has already been communicated to farmers.
More than 13 billion rubles were allocated for short loans (at a rate of no more than 5%), which will allow farmers to attract more than 230 billion rubles of loan funds. This amount, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, should cover 2/3 of the needs of agricultural producers for borrowed funds for the sowing campaign.
In general, industry financing is planned to be maintained at the level not lower than the previous year.
Results of the 2016 agricultural census
Konstantin Laykam, Deputy Head of the Federal State Statistics Service, briefly briefed the meeting participants on the preliminary results of the 2016 All-Russian Agricultural Census, highlighting the most indicative figures.
So, he noted that over the ten years since the 2006 agricultural census, the number of agricultural enterprises in Russia has decreased by 40%, the number of farms has decreased by 46%.
True, the number of agricultural entrepreneurs increased (by 19%). At the same time, K. Laikam emphasized that these data cannot be considered final: almost a quarter of formally existing agricultural organizations, almost every third peasant farms, in fact do not carry out their activities, and in 25 regions more than half of the farmers are listed only on paper.
The census showed increased differentiation of agricultural producers: the share of large enterprises with crops of over 2,5 thousand hectares increased 10 times (5% of these organizations account for 35% of the total sown area).
The total area of farmland in farms of all categories has decreased over the past ten years by 24 million hectares (14%) and now amounts to 142 million hectares, but the area of farmland used has remained almost the same as before. This happened because the area of unused farmland decreased by 57%.
The total sown area of agricultural land increased by 6% (4,5 million hectares) and reached 79 million hectares. The sowing growth was due to peasant and private farms and individual entrepreneurs, who expanded their sown area by 70% (9 million hectares). Other categories of agricultural producers have reduced their crops, including agricultural organizations - by 4 million hectares (7%).
The census recorded a significant reduction in agricultural workers. In agricultural organizations, the number of personnel decreased by more than half, in farms - by 40%, and among individual entrepreneurs - by 20%.
The final results of the 2016 agricultural census will be published this year, they can be found on the official website: the www.vshp2016.r
Price forecast for the 2018 season
As Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), noted, summing up the results of 2017 and commenting on the record achievements in grain growing: “Big harvest - big problems, huge harvest - huge problems”.
Nevertheless, making assumptions about the prices for Russian grain by the end of 2018, the analyst was quite optimistic (IKAR forecast is about $ 200 per ton, i.e. slightly higher than in 2017). D. Rylko noted that this year the country achieved colossal results in grain exports, which gives hope for a decrease in grain stocks by the end of the year.
IKAR also predicts a rise in the price of sunflower in the second half of 2018 (in 2017, the harvest was not high, but by the current moment, the price of the product remains quite low, since there is still oil produced on the market last year).
Very carefully, the analyst advises to relate to the situation in the sugar market. From the point of view of ICAR, the prospects for exporting this product are not yet brilliant. This year, a significant part of Russian sugar was supplied to Uzbekistan, but this direction cannot be called stable. This means that without reaching serious agreements on the export of sugar “overseas”, the country should not speed up the production of sugar beets.
No less complicated is the situation with buckwheat. The price of it fell to the level of wheat, which, according to D. Rylko, was not very long ago. The analyst expressed concern that if in 2018 the buckwheat crop is again large and the prices low, in 2019 agricultural producers may completely abandon this crop.
Plans and prospects
According to the plans of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, in 2018, the total sown area in the country will be 80 million hectares, of which 53 million hectares will be allocated for spring sowing. It is projected to increase the cultivation area of soy, rape, flax, barley and forage crops; reduction of areas for sunflower (up to 7,5 million hectares) and sugar beets (up to 1,1 million hectares). Russia is again waiting for excellent yields and is not going to stop at the records reached.
According to the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Alexander Tkachev: “We are optimistic about the future, the import substitution process is ongoing, Sberbank analysts believe that in 2018 the Russian agro-industrial complex can achieve a result that has not been achieved for decades and regain its status as a net food exporter . The industry has huge resources and high potential for further development. ”