According to the Eastfruit, the potato market of the countries monitored by the portal (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Poland and Georgia) was in a fever from the very beginning of the 2021/22 season, and each had its own problems.
Today, Russia remains the leader in terms of prices, with the average price for potatoes in the country reaching 38 US cents per kg. In Georgia and Belarus, the average cost of potatoes is only 2 cents cheaper. The export of potatoes from Georgia to the Russian Federation has already stopped, and the supply of potatoes from Belarus to the Russian Federation is the re-export of products grown in Ukraine or the EU.
Moldova sells potatoes relatively inexpensively. Theoretically, export deliveries of potatoes from this country to the Russian Federation are still possible, however, it is no longer easy to collect commercial consignments of potatoes of the required quality in the country.
The lowest prices are in Ukraine - here you can buy potatoes two or more times lower than in Russia, Georgia and Belarus. It's time to talk about the export of potatoes to Georgia. The supply of potatoes to Belarus is now complicated by new quarantine requirements, as well as problems with logistics. It is also difficult to supply potatoes to the EU countries due to strict quarantine requirements, as well as due to problems with the quality of Ukrainian products. And prices in the EU (for example, in Poland) are now slightly higher than in Ukraine.
It is interesting to look at the dynamics of potato prices in recent weeks in the analyzed countries of Eastern Europe. It shows how countries deal with shortages or surpluses.
Most of all - by 33% - since the beginning of September, the prices for potatoes have increased in Moldova, which got rid of the surplus of production. At the same time, in the last 4 weeks, prices for potatoes in this country have been stable, which means that supply and demand have balanced. At the same time, prices are only slightly higher than last year.
Belarus has slightly reduced wholesale prices for potatoes in the past two months - on average, potatoes have become more affordable by 4%. However, if we compare with the beginning of September, then the prices for potatoes are still 28% higher.
Russia seems to be very successful in tackling the potato shortage, because prices here have fallen by 4% over the past 8 weeks and by 21% over the past two months. However, now potatoes are sold here at 21% more expensive than at the beginning of September. And this is not surprising, since there are no longer any sources of cheap potatoes in the world for Russia. Potatoes in the Russian Federation are now sold three times more expensive than at the same time in 2019 and one and a half times more expensive than in 2020.
Potato prices in Georgia are gradually increasing. Since they are already very high and twice as high as last year, it can be concluded that the season for exporting potatoes from Georgia is over. At this price level, the country may even start importing.
In Poland, potatoes are also dynamically rising in price, although prices remain relatively low. Obviously, the country is now successfully coping with the surplus of production.
In Ukraine, potato prices continue to decline, which indicates continuing problems with product sales. Enter foreign markets without significantly improving the quality of potatoes manufacturers cannot. Now potato growers in Ukraine sell their products almost twice as cheap as usual during this period of the year.
In order to predict potato prices with a high degree of probability, it is necessary to constantly conduct fundamental market analysis. Such work is carried out in Ukraine only by the company APK-Inform: vegetables and fruitshowever, this forecast is not public.
Proceeding from this, experts of East Fruit, reflecting on the prospects of the market, rely on the available information on trade trends and in this publication do not give a forecast, but rather the consolidated expectations of participants in the region's potato market.
So, first of all, about where you can buy potatoes for those countries that are experiencing a shortage of products, namely for Russia and Belarus?
Pakistan has already begun harvesting a new crop of potatoes, but the cost of logistics is such that at the moment there is no point in supplying potatoes to the European part of the Russian Federation and to Belarus from this country.
Iran will also start entering the potato market with a new crop as early as January 2022, just like Egypt. However, the potato harvest in Egypt this year will be much lower than usual, and prices are already very high there. Since it is Egypt that is usually the main supplier of potatoes to Russia in the spring, the prices from this country will be decisive for the formation of prices in the Russian Federation. Proceeding from this, market participants expect an increase in the price of potatoes in Russia in February. A similar forecast, respectively, will be for Belarus.
By the way, in Belarus there is another reason for the rise in prices for potatoes - from January 1, 2022, the import of potatoes, as well as other vegetables and fruits from the EU to this country will stop. In addition, prices for potatoes in this country are directly correlated with prices in the Russian Federation.
In Ukraine, potato stocks remain sufficient, and export to most countries of the world is either impossible or very difficult. This suggests the prospect of keeping prices for potatoes at a very low level.
But in Moldova, the stocks of potatoes of the required quality may turn out to be lower than the market needs in the winter-spring period. Therefore, many market participants are inclined to the possibility of an increase in the price of potatoes in this country. Another interesting feature of the potato season is the high prices for seed potatoes in the countries of the region. The demand for it has grown, but the supply has decreased.