The difficulties faced by agrarians due to the coronacrisis are associated not only with objective factors, but also with management errors.
Import takes up a lot of space in the cost of agricultural products.
The depreciation of the ruble, quarantine restrictions due to coronavirus and natural adversity hit the Russian agricultural sector. It is already clear that the year 2020 will be very difficult for agricultural workers.
As affected by the fall of the ruble
According to Oleg Komolov, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, almost all sectors of the Russian economy, including the agro-industrial complex, will suffer from the current crisis.
“There is an unpleasant tendency when two factors converge at the same time: demand falls and costs rise. At the same time, stagnation and inflation occur. Usually one thing happens, but when both phenomena converge, stagflation occurs: the most unpleasant situation in the economy. The drop in demand is already felt by agriculture. Although this industry produces products with a low degree of elasticity of demand, people are beginning to deny themselves even the food products that they now consider to be an excess. At the same time, the costs of agricultural producers are growing, because, despite the statements about the success of import substitution, our agriculture is highly dependent on imports, including machinery, fertilizers, seed stock, etc., ”Komolov said.
Igor Abakumov, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor of the Moscow Agricultural Academy named after Timiryazev, recalled that food producers and exporters in our country are different people. And if for the second, a drop in the ruble and a rise in the price of the dollar are good, for the first, the problems are just beginning.
“Import takes a lot of place in the cost of agricultural products. These are, for example, spare parts for tractors, from crankshafts to small pads for milking machines and other imported equipment. We also buy seeds. Once the breeding centers were state-owned, but since the state stopped funding them, we buy seeds abroad. In the same place we buy "genetics": live animals - mothers who will give birth to us calves, kids, lambs, pigs. We buy incubator eggs of geese, chickens, ducks. We can say that we have a harvest of "screwdriver assembly". We collect all the intellectual potential of the world, and our contribution remains labor, money, water and land. All imports will now rise in price, and this will affect the cost of the products produced. Prices will rise: not multiple, of course, but in the budget of an ordinary Russian family, food costs will exceed 50%, ”Abakumov believes.
Meanwhile, prices have grown not only in imports, but also in domestic fuel. “Diesel fuel was more than 45 thousand rubles per ton, now it is more than 46 thousand rubles. Chemistry has risen in price. Spare parts are expensive. What else will be the prices this year, we do not know yet. But everything rises in price, costs are large, ”stated Ivan Brigert, president of the Union of Peasant (Farm) Farms of the Omsk Region.
The chairman of the Association of Peasant (Farm) Farms, Cooperatives and Other Small Agricultural Producers of the Krasnodar Territory Viktor Sergeyev spoke about the same problems. “For spring field work, farmers stockpiled diesel in December. Then diesel fuel was sold at 45 rubles per liter. Now the price at gas stations is under 49 rubles. Wholesalers will, of course, have a lower price. In our region, farmers will start acquiring fuel for cleaning work in late May - early June. The economic situation in the country as a whole is difficult, but I hope that this is why the jump in prices for diesel fuel will not be allowed, ”Viktor Sergeyev suggested.
Who hit the coronavirus
Damaged agriculture and quarantine restrictions due to coronavirus. “In the southern Russian regions, for example, in the Krasnodar Territory, very strict isolation measures were introduced, and many agricultural producers faced difficulties in transportation. These restrictions created additional problems for farmers during the sowing campaign. Everything was organized inefficiently, and in order to get a pass for the passage of agricultural machinery, it was necessary to spend time, and this increased costs and resulted in an increase in prices for manufactured products, ”Oleg Komolov said.
“Because of the coronavirus, the logistic chains of movement from the field to the plate were broken. Especially noticeably they were interrupted between private producers and small markets, because the latter were closed. You could not trade in a mask or without a mask. Some began to switch to online trading when the seller and buyer agree in advance about a transaction on the Internet. But on this wave a considerable number of charlatans or amateurs divorced who drive hack work for a lot of money, realizing that you can make money on it. On the other hand, the losses of those who could not sell their products were sometimes uncompensated. Someone is already closing, scoring the shop with boards, and someone has filed a tax application for closing the enterprise. Some people simply do not have time to make ends meet, because they have invested their money, and they cannot sell products, ”said Igor Abakumov.
“Quarantine influenced the execution of agreements between producers of early vegetables and buyers from other regions. But we have developed our markets in the Krasnodar Territory, we are currently negotiating with retail chains to sell the grown crops through them, ”said Victor Sergeyev, an agricultural producer.
Will the state protect against adversity
The next test for the villagers could be a predicted drought. In this regard, the question arises: is the state ready to support agricultural producers?
“In the Krasnodar Territory, grain shortages due to frost in March are forecasted. Also affected, especially in the foothills, fruit crops. In some places, up to 70-80% died. Now there is a drought, not enough moisture, this gives rise to new fears. The Association of Peasant Farms is working on issues with banks in order to prolong loans for a year, protect farms from bankruptcies and save jobs, ”said Victor Sergeyev.
“In the Omsk region, the last week was a temperature of + 32 ... + 33 degrees. You can imagine what this means in our climate. Everything burned, the earth did not have enough moisture, and people fainted in tractors. We don’t expect any help from anyone. But we are not working purely for ourselves. Let us be private traders, but in fact we work for the state, feed the country ... ”- said Ivan Brigert.
“Assistance from the state is subject to various conditions. To get it in a drought, there must be a large percentage of the affected area. And if, for example, there is irrigation in two fields, but only in one it is not, then it turns out that the overall picture of the farm seems to be tolerant. But revenues somehow decreased by a third. This means that workers will be paid a third less, local taxes will be paid less. In order to resolve such situations, the relations between the agrarian business and the state in crisis situations, it is necessary to bring together agrarians, officials, scientists and discuss the problems in a businesslike way. But while the discussion is taking place only on the pages of the press, ”stated Igor Abakumov.
“Russia is waiting for austerity measures, a long crisis, the state will come out of it by limiting social policy, cutting budget spending and worsening the lives of ordinary people. This will mean problems not only for agriculture, but also for all sectors of the economy, ”Oleg Komolov predicted.
Due to “coronavirus” problems, agriculture this year has been on the periphery of public attention. However, crop shortages and rising prices will still remind Russians about this industry.
Dmitry Remizov