According to a study by the marketing agency BusinesStat “Potato Market Analysis in Russia”, in Russia there have recently been two periods of decline in potato sales (in 2016 and 2019), but in the future, demand for products will grow.
“In 2016, the decline in sales by 3,4% was preceded by the maximum potato crop in the five years in 2015, which amounted to 25,4 million tons. The large crop of potatoes harvested from their private plots allowed Russians to stock up and reduce purchases in the winter, ”the study says.
The share of consumption of potatoes grown in this way of subsistence farming in the analyzed period amounted to about 70% of total consumption (versus 30% purchased in markets and in stores). Sales declined the most in 2019 (-6,1% compared to 2018), when, according to analysts, household incomes were the highest, and the Russians changed the food structure in favor of more expensive products.
According to BusinesStat estimates, in 2020, sales will decline by 1,1% due to the transition from purchases to growing potatoes in household plots. This trend is characteristic of periods of decline in real income. In addition, the suspension of the purchase of potatoes by enterprises of the HoReCa sector influenced sales. The pandemic cut sales in catering by about a quarter to the level of 2019.
In the years 2021-2024. potato sales will grow by 1,6-1,9% per year. In the context of declining incomes, the share of potatoes in the total volume of food consumption due to low cost will increase. In 2024, total potato sales in Russia will amount to about 7,2 million tons - 1,2% less than in 2015.