Alexey Krasilnikov, executive director of the Potato Union
Potato acreage is likely to increase this season. The cost of production will increase without any doubt. But the harvest will be in demand, because the importance of the "second bread" in the context of the deepening global food crisis cannot be overestimated.
End of the season
The industry is finishing the 21st crop sales season quite calmly. According to Rosstat, the remains of table potatoes in the warehouses of large agricultural producers during the spring remained approximately at the same level as a year earlier. Agricultural producers continue to sell their products in the standard mode, domestic potatoes side by side on the shelves of supermarkets with imported ones (primarily Egyptian).
By the way, in March, in conditions of unstable exchange rates, the volume of supplies of products from Egypt temporarily fell (according to the information of the AB center, 67,0 thousand tons of potatoes were imported into Russia, which is 8,9% less than in the same period of the year previously). Part of the Egyptian harvest was taken over by Europe, where there was a shortage of this product. Nevertheless, the Russian market remains one of the priorities for Egypt, so our consumers will not experience any problems with the provision of early potatoes.
We also note that the prices for Russian potatoes in retail sales remain quite high (the difference in cost with the Egyptian product is minimal), but many farmers say that sales networks, and not producers, receive income from sales: despite all the measures introduced by the authorities restrictions markup on the product often reaches 100%.
Landing
Potato planting this year in almost all regions of the country (including the southern ones) began with a slight delay: on average, the deadlines have shifted by 1-2 weeks.
There is nothing critical in this, the volume of the crop will depend on what weather conditions will develop in the future.
In most of the territories, work is in full swing, and it is still difficult to judge how many potatoes will be planted in each specific area. Recall, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the area under this crop in the commodity sector of the country in season 22 should increase by 30 thousand hectares.
Private household plots can also make their contribution to the matter of providing Russians with potatoes this year. The Russian government and the Ministry of Agriculture have taken a number of measures to support the cultivation of potatoes and vegetables in the open field in private farms. But those wishing to receive subsidies will need to comply with certain strict requirements (for example, the organizer of a household plot will have to obtain the status of self-employed and document all their costs for growing products). The project to support household plots is a pilot one, it is very interesting how it will show itself in practice. It is possible that the introduced measures will really give results and return interest in culture in this sector, but it is clearly premature to say that private household plots will restore their share in the total production volume and reach the level of the 90s.
Seed potatoes
In season-22, according to the Potato Union, it was planned to import about 15,5 thousand tons of seed potatoes to Russia from the EU countries. The main volume of seed supplies traditionally falls on March-April, but the spring of this year did not start well for all participants in this process. It should be noted that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rosselkhoznadzor have done a lot to simplify the procedure for importing seed material. In particular, supplies of planting material to Russia since the beginning of March have been carried out without pre-shipment control, based on the results of quarantine phytosanitary control and laboratory examination upon import.
But the transport organizers had to face numerous other problems. The terms of delivery by road have increased greatly, trucks stood at the borders for 7-10 days (the situation in Poland was and remains especially difficult), the cost of road transport soared two to three times. Maritime transportation has practically stopped, as carriers, for various reasons, refused to fulfill their obligations.
As a result, by mid-May, about 12 thousand tons of seed potatoes arrived in Russia, some of the seeds are still on the way. We expect that the total volume of imports will be about 13,5 thousand tons, which is less than what was delivered in 2021 (16,8 thousand tons, according to the Federal Customs Service), but more than in 2020 (9,2 thousand . tons) and 2019 (9,5 thousand tons).
In general, the Russian market over the past few years has been characterized by a downward trend in the import of European seeds due to the localization of their production within the country.
Domestic varieties
It is still too early to form a ranking of the leading varieties in terms of planting volumes in the Russian Federation, published annually by the Rosselkhoztsentr, but it can be assumed that the usual "ten" in the current season will change slightly, and it will still be based on varieties of foreign selection.
Despite the complex of measures that are currently being taken to promote Russian varieties created under the FSTP, it should be recognized that work to increase the awareness of domestic brands has just begun, and it will take years to achieve noticeable results. Participants of the program need to maximize the sites for the presentation of breeding achievements, as well as place varieties of colleagues at their facilities for objectivity and comparison of varieties in various regions of the country. Although some Russian potato growers have already included the most promising new products in their lines.
Pain points of the season
There is a lot to be said about problems. In our opinion, the most acute at the start of the season is the shortage (failure to meet deadlines or refusal to supply) agricultural machinery and spare parts. Of course, possible replacements will be found, our operators are now actively establishing cooperation with China and other countries, but the opening of new channels will take time. At the same time, we all understand how important it is to prevent downtime in the midst of field work.
The Potato Union turned to the Government of Moscow with a request to analyze the possibilities of enterprises in the region to organize the production of the most demanded items of spare parts: bearings, oil seals, etc. We received preliminary support. In the future, with the help of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, we plan to develop this area.
Of great concern is the rise in production costs. Fuels and lubricants, mineral fertilizers, plant protection products, seeds - all these items have risen in price by at least 20-30%. It is not yet clear how the issue of providing the agricultural sector with workers will be resolved, and this is also a significant factor, especially for the southern regions. As a result, the global cost of potatoes will increase by at least 40%.
We will look for ways to save money. For example, the price of packaging has grown a lot. Apparently, for some time, stores will sell mostly loose potatoes.
Harvest plans
A year ago experts from the Potato Union began to talk about the fact that in the context of a steady decline in potato production in households and the growth of processing industries in Russia, there are prerequisites for a shortage of products. This year, the authorities provided subsidies for the cultivation of potatoes for household plots, and a significant part of the processing projects is currently frozen. Nevertheless, we consider it premature to be afraid of overproduction, even in the face of a possible increase in area.
In addition, in the current economic and political situation, in our opinion, potatoes (both table and seed) and their processed products are of particular value both in the domestic and foreign markets. Food remains in the foreground under any circumstances, and it is no coincidence that potatoes are called the second bread.
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