The dynamics of prices for carrots is characterized by:
— Expected high prices for carrots throughout the first half of 2022.
In January-June 2022, in the context of a limited supply of carrots harvested in 2021, prices for this type of vegetable, according to the forecasts of the Expert and Analytical Center for Agribusiness "AB-Center", will be at consistently high levels compared to a year ago. . As for the dynamics itself, during the indicated period, the price vector will also tend to grow. It is highly likely that by mid-March 2022, the average wholesale prices for carrots will exceed 28,0 rubles/kg (at the beginning of January they were 20,5 rubles/kg excluding VAT, and by the end of April their level will exceed 30,0 rub/kg).
- Forecasted significant weakening of carrot prices in the 2022/2023 season.
In the second half of 2022, with the expected recovery in collections, carrot prices will drop significantly. Growth in fees will occur in the context of expanding the size of sown areas.
Much will depend on the amount of fees. According to the forecast data from AB-Center presented in the study, carrot harvests in the vegetable growing industry in 2022 will reach a record high of 976,1 thousand tons. This volume is limited to the volume that will cause an "overproduction crisis".
The previous record was set in 2019, when 963,9 thousand tons were harvested. Then, in September 2019, the average wholesale prices for carrots were only 9,7 rubles / kg. For comparison, in September 2020 they grew to 13,1 rubles/kg (in 2020 they collected much less - 817,7 thousand tons), in September 2021 - up to 16,1 rubles/kg (collections in 2021 amounted to 721,8 thousand tons).
If the volume of fees reaches the forecast values, then it can be expected that by September 2022, wholesale prices will fall to 10,0-11,0 rubles / kg. During October-December 2022 and until May 2023, their sluggish growth will be noted (up to 12,0-14,0 rubles / kg).
This is an average forecast, there is always a possibility of both favorable natural and climatic factors, and unfavorable ones. For example, the harvest forecast is based on the fact that carrot yields will be at the average annual levels over the past 5 years. If the year is high-yielding, then industrial fees may significantly exceed 1 million tons, which will lead to a total crisis of overproduction, wholesale prices will fall to 7-8 rubles / kg and will not grow throughout the season - until the summer of 2023. Storing carrots in such conditions can become unprofitable.
At the same time, the reverse situation may also occur, when unfavorable natural and climatic factors will not allow the expansion of areas and/or increase in yield. Then the prices will continue to remain at high levels.