The National Union of Agricultural Insurers has updated the forecast of agrometeorological conditions for the 2022 agricultural season for the European part of Russia and the Trans-Urals before the sowing season, prepared on the basis of space monitoring data. “Despite the generally favorable beginning of the agricultural season, this year, for part of the territories of the Middle Volga region, the Southern Urals and the Caucasus, the risks of crop loss due to drought events may be increased. In addition, for some regions, the likelihood of damage to crops due to waterlogging of the soil begins to increase.
“The beginning of the 2022 season is noticeably different from the two previous years, during which the agrometeorological situation throughout Russia from the western border to the Urals was largely determined by the moisture deficit factor,” comments NSA President Korney Bizhdov. “Now there is a change in trend. In most crop-growing regions of the European part of Russia, soil moisture indicators for two months are at the level of average values for the last 10 years, and in the south, southwest and northeast they exceed it by 5–20%. This is an auspicious start to the season, which promises a good harvest. But in combination with the current set of meteorological conditions on the continent, this creates prerequisites for the formation of a different risk profile for the period of spring and early summer: local situations of waterlogging are not ruled out, and risks of storm events (strong wind and rain, hail) may also materialize. At the same time, the likelihood of drought remains elevated for several regions in which soil moisture reserves have not yet recovered.”
The greatest concern of NSA experts is caused by the zone that covers in whole or in part part of the regions of the Middle Volga and the Southern Urals - the Republic of Bashkortostan (except for the northern regions), Mari El, Chuvashia, Tatarstan, as well as the regions: Ulyanovsk, Orenburg (regions of the northeastern part), Sverdlovsk (southern part), and to a lesser extent - Chelyabinsk and Kurgan. Since autumn, this zone has been characterized by a moisture deficit, and in the period from mid-January to mid-March, there was also a pronounced decrease in the moisture index in the soil to 5-10% relative to the average values, and in some areas - up to 20%. “Although precipitation in early April and snowmelt will have a positive impact on the Volga region and, to a lesser extent, on the regions of the Urals, the practice of the NSA shows that in areas with a long-term reduced level of soil moisture, crop production is usually more vulnerable to fluctuations in weather conditions, so the likelihood of crop loss here should be rated as high. In addition, experts predict a drought in Central Asia this year. Due to its geographical location, crop production in the southern and middle parts of the Volga region and the Urals may be affected by it. Therefore, the NSA recommends that agricultural producers in these regions, who already have a negative experience of large-scale losses due to drought last year, pay special attention to the possibility of crop insurance, including in case of an emergency.
In the northern regions of both the Volga region and the Central Federal District, where farmers also suffered losses in 2021 due to an atypical drought for this zone, the state of moisture in the soil in autumn-winter is normal. “These regions are more likely to experience their characteristic waterlogging risk this season,” said the NSA president. In addition, excess moisture in the fields is not excluded for the regions of the Central Black Earth and some regions of the Center.
In the south of Russia, the relative indicators of moisture in the soil over the past 2 months were higher than the average ten-year values by 10-20%. A decrease in moisture reserves was observed only in one zone - it covers the southeast of Stavropol, the northern regions of Karachay-Cherkessia, the Chechen Republic and part of Dagestan. Here, the soil moisture indicators for the last two months were also 10-20% lower than the long-term average values.
“The risk for crop production in the South of Russia is not only drought events,” emphasizes Korney Bizhdov. – Significant damage is periodically caused by downpours with strong winds and hail. In general, in recent years, the South has been characterized by sharp fluctuations in weather conditions, which led to losses in crop production. In particular, today in the Krasnodar Territory, in the foothill areas, plant breeders note the stressful state of winter crops due to flooding and windy frost, which caused frost burns of plants. A negative scenario could be a breakthrough of a wave of cold atmospheric masses to the Black Sea zone in the second half of April - early May, as happened two years ago.