The situation on the market of carrots in Uzbekistan is bewildering. Prices for these products are now almost three times higher than last year. and about six times higher than normal for this period of the year, reports the portal east fruit. And despite such a high level, they tend to further increase.
Analysts Eastfruit tried to find an explanation for what was happening. Maybe the production of carrots in Uzbekistan has decreased? However, everything says otherwise. Maybe Russia is to blame again, like in the summer of 2021, when the export of Uzbek carrots to our country soared? No, the wholesale price for carrots in Uzbekistan is now even higher than in Russia, so there is no point in exporting it there at all. What is the reason for the high prices for this most important type of vegetable production for Uzbekistan?
High prices and record exports to Russia in the spring-summer period, when a lot of memes about record prices for these vegetables were circulating on the net, prompted Uzbek farmers to sharply increase the area under carrot crops. In July 2021, the planting area for late-ripening carrots, which are harvested in October and November, was at least doubled, according to growers. Since the yield of this carrot did not differ significantly from previous years, accordingly, the volume of the carrot harvest in October-November 2021 also doubled.
Despite the high level of prices in Russia and Belarus, which also should not be discounted, because now prices for carrots there are the highest of all countries in the region, carrot exports to the Russian market in October-December 2021 increased by only 9%. Moreover, prices for carrots in Uzbekistan are now higher than in Russia. Therefore, such a factor as a significant impact of exports is eliminated.
Accordingly, judging by the opinion of the interviewed farmers, there are now a lot of carrots in Uzbekistan, exports do not make economic sense, and these volumes should put a lot of pressure on the market, and prices should fall. But they are growing! In addition, in less than a month, in March, harvesting of winter carrots will begin. And here the farmers are also talking about doubling the area.
There is only one explanation for this situation, and it is confirmed by the interviewed representatives of the vegetable market in Uzbekistan – traders are confident that the 2021 scenario will repeat itself. They expect prices for carrots in the Russian market to triple and reach 3 US cents per kg, the same as last year.
Uzbek farmers confirm that traders are still buying and storing carrots in large volumes. Those. Carrot trade in Uzbekistan is quite active, but with the laying of large volumes for storage - and this once again confirms the theory that traders buy it for export needs.
In the southern regions of Uzbekistan, part of the crop of late-ripening carrots is still in the ground, it is in no hurry to harvest it, despite the relatively high current prices. This is a cheap and high-quality way to store carrots, if there are no severe frosts. Also, market participants confirm that there are a lot of carrots in vegetable stores, and some of them directly say that “the stores are simply littered with late-ripening carrots of the 2021 harvest.”
Can the domestic market of Uzbekistan absorb such a volume of carrots, especially considering that the winter crop may double? The answer is unequivocal - of course not. After all, traders expect prices to rise, and prices for carrots in Uzbekistan usually rise sharply only if they rise in the Russian market.
This has not happened for two years in a row, but this does not mean that it is impossible. In favor of such a scenario, the weather conditions for growing carrots in Russia last year were difficult, and carrot yields seem to have decreased. But the areas under carrots increased last year, so production volumes, most likely, increased.
Also, the last carrot season in Russia had several features, the repetition of which will be a necessary condition for Uzbek traders to be able to realize the dream of high earnings on the export of root crops to Russia in March-June 2022.
The cold spring of 2021 delayed the start of the harvest of local early root crops in Russia, and a similar situation was in the countries neighboring the Russian Federation. Secondly, heavy rains prevented the harvest of early beets and carrots after the start of the season. Thirdly, stocks of last year's root crops in neighboring countries also quickly came to an end. As a result, there was simply nothing to satisfy the market demand, and prices shot up sharply.
Could this happen again in 2022? This cannot be ruled out, but the likelihood of such a development of events is rather low.
However, there is another crucial moment that greatly distinguishes the spring of 2021 from the spring of 2022.: last spring, the stocks of carrots in Uzbekistan, taking into account the winter harvest, were several times lower than they would be in 2022.
Even if prices for carrots start to rise in Russia, Uzbek producers and exporters will quickly collapse them, starting to export carrots in large volumes.
Therefore, the forecast for the development of events in the carrot market of Uzbekistan will not be very comforting: if the information received from market participants is true, then many Uzbek vegetable traders will suffer significant losses, because prices for carrots in Uzbekistan will begin to decline as early as March. At this time, the quality of autumn carrots in storage begins to deteriorate rapidly, and they will need to be sold quickly so as not to incur losses.
At the same time, early winter carrots of the new crop will appear on the market, which will also put pressure on prices, and farmers in the south will also start digging up carrots left in the ground since autumn, which will also go on sale. Indeed, at this moment, it will already be obvious to intermediaries and wholesalers that the 2021 scenario will not be realized, which means that the sale of stocks will begin.
This is the most likely scenario for the development of events, which can be adjusted by many market and weather factors. However, we can say for sure that keeping large volumes of carrots in vegetable stores, and even more so buying them at the current high price in order to cash in on resale in the spring, is an operation with the highest level of risk.