The specialists of the company "August", one of the largest Russian manufacturers of chemical plant protection products, have listed the most profitable mass agricultural crops, as well as the main threats to the harvest of these crops this season. The most highly profitable for farmers today is the cultivation of cereals, sunflowers, rapeseed, oil flax and corn. At the same time, the main task for making a profit is not reducing the costs of agricultural production, but increasing the yield.
Cereals. For several years now, the weather and the harvests that depend on it have left much to be desired in both Europe and the United States. The world's centers for cereal production suffer from a lack of rainfall. In the global market for cereals, the price is high and the demand is stable - to such an extent that, in terms of margins, these crops have now surpassed the long-term undisputed leader - sunflower.
“In Russia, meanwhile, cereal crops are quite high,” says Dmitry Belov, head of the product development department of the August company. “A variety of soil and climatic zones works in our favor: for example, we have Central Russia and, in particular, the Central Black Earth Region, where the limiting factor of moisture is practically absent, unlike, say, the southern regions.”
This does not mean that there will be no problems in 2021, although some experts, including the analytical service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), predicted another record wheat harvest for Russia. So, this spring in the Central Chernozem region, due to dry autumn and poor overwintering of winter crops, there was a high proportion of "fallen out" areas. For example, in some farms in the Voronezh Region, 100% of the fields had to be re-sowed with spring crops. Due to snow mold, a fungal disease that affects plants during a prolonged spring, part of the winter crops in Altai, Udmurtia and Bashkortostan died. A fairly rare disease - sclerotinosis - also manifested itself in Udmurtia, Bashkortostan and Mordovia. Given this situation, it can be assumed that prices for wheat, rye and barley will not decrease in 2021. Additional threats include such pests as bread fleas and wireworms, and in a number of regions, due to a sharp increase in the average daily air temperature, crops suffered from thermal burns.
Sunflower... Despite the existing mechanisms for regulating prices for sunflower seeds, it remains a high-margin crop with a large export potential. In 2021, about 8 million hectares of this crop were planned for sowing, but here it should be borne in mind that the dead winter crops were sown including sunflower. Thus, the trend of increasing the area under it in 2021 continues.
Farmers who promise profit "golden flowers" strive to save with all their might - it is not for nothing that sunflower is considered a flagship crop in terms of progress in the use of plant protection products. “However, diseases such as phomosis and phomopsis, which cause tissue necrosis of plants, downy mildew, basket rot, botrytinia (gray rot) and sclerotiniasis, can worsen the harvest this year. Although the latter showed itself in winter cereals, it should be borne in mind that for fungi of the genus Sclerotinia, the host plants are sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans, and the corresponding structure of crop rotation contributes to the increasing sclerotinia infection of crops, ”says Dmitry Belov.
Rape. In Russia, the culture of consumption of rapeseed oil for food is not developed - in contrast to Europe. Also, China is willingly buying all types of vegetable oils. The demand for rapeseed oil is still growing due to the increase in world production of biodiesel, as a raw material, rapeseed is necessary for the manufacture of industrial oils and lubricants, in the production of household chemicals and perfumes. All this supports the status of rapeseed as a high-margin oilseed crop. In Russia, winter rapeseed is increasingly spreading from south to north, where there is more moisture, including in autumn, and accordingly, the risk of poor overwintering of crops is lower. The areas under crops of spring rape have also tended to increase in recent years.
“However, this year the yield of rapeseed, and, consequently, the dynamics of growth in the areas of its sowing is a big question. In a number of regions, where initially there was enough moisture due to snowfalls, the fields nevertheless dried out too quickly: the snow, as they say, turned out to be "empty". In general, weather conditions can be considered the main threat for rapeseed in 2021, ”Dmitry Belov believes.
Oil flax... In 2020, the rapid increase in the purchase price for seeds of this crop came as a surprise to producers. Oilseed flax in the near future may well prove itself as a rival of rapeseed - at least in those lands where weather conditions do not allow relying on its consistently high yields. Flaxseed and flax oil are increasingly used in food production all over the world, but the main factor determining the rise in prices is the use of flaxseed oil as a technical raw material in industry, in particular, paint and varnish.
Oilseed flax is sown early enough, it is less susceptible to adverse weather conditions, and moisture deficit is not as destructive for it as its excess. Among the diseases that can harm the culture in 2021, first of all, fusarium wilting and flax flock should be distinguished - a disease that significantly worsens the quality of its seeds. In the early stages of development, flax can also be seriously threatened by wireworms.
Corn. The popularity of the "queen of the fields" has decreased in the southern regions of Russia, however, in the Central Black Earth Region, today it is possible to obtain high yields of this crop - about 70 centners / ha. In general, the area under crops is growing - including due to the need for spring sowing in place of damaged winter crops. The export potential of corn is extremely high, it is also in demand on the domestic market, it is also an important crop for animal husbandry.
“From the point of view of marginality, sweet corn used for canning stands out: it has very high purchase prices and is often grown under contracts signed in advance with producers. Therefore, any mistake can be costly. The main objects of control among pests are the cotton bollworm, whose caterpillars settle on the cobs, causing irreversible damage to them and making them unusable, as well as the corn stalk moth, ”says Dmitry Belov.
As the experts of "August" note, the main task of farmers in Russia today is precisely to increase the yield, and not to reduce production costs, which has practically lost its expediency. For a crop of 30 c / ha, approximately the same level of costs is required as for a crop of 60 c / ha, however, the cost of a centner of grain in the second case decreases, and the marginality increases. “The higher the yield becomes, the more the need for agricultural insurance grows - from diseases, weeds, pests. And Russian agricultural producers today are approaching a “reasonable minimum” of costs for cultivating crops: more is most likely possible, but less is definitely not possible, ”concludes Dmitry Belov.