The snowy winter saved a significant proportion of winter crops that suffered from dry weather in the fall. An abundance of moisture in spring will be typical for most regions of Russia. Experts from the August company, the largest Russian manufacturer of plant protection products, note that in 2021 there are prerequisites for a protracted spring, when the slow melting of snow cover and cold soil can weaken seedlings. Crops under conditions of nutrient deficiency are defenseless against many phytopathogens. For individual crops, due to their diseases and weather factors, it is possible to lose up to 20% of the yield, if measures are not taken in time to feed and protect plants.
At the beginning of March, the Roshydrometeorological Center improved the forecast for winter crops: if at the beginning of winter the share of bad and non-emerging crops was estimated as one fifth of all areas under winter crops, now it is less than a tenth: winter precipitation has significantly improved the situation.
“The global fluctuations of weather phenomena that we are witnessing are truly amazing and affect the whole world,” says Dmitry Belov, head of the product development department of the August company. - This winter, we could observe snowfalls throughout the country, from the south to Siberia, not to mention freezing temperatures on the other side of the planet - for example, in Texas. It should be noted that last autumn was quite stressful for the farmers of the south and part of the central regions of Russia. Due to the drought, they faced the question: wait for moisture and sow later, or sow earlier, but deepen the sowing. In the second case, the plants are more provided with moisture, but they have less opportunities for tillering and, as a rule, they can form only one productive stem. Now, after snowfalls, we see that deep sowing in those regions where winter crops usually do not threaten overwinter did not make sense, late sowing had the opportunity to develop and, thus, we can already talk about a potentially normal harvest. However, it was extremely difficult to predict such a course of events during the autumn sowing campaign ”.
As the experts of "August" note, it is not only about precipitation. Wind and frost usually play a role - snow from fields in such conditions can blow into hollows and ravines. However, this winter the weather was on the side of the farmers. For example, in the Stavropol Territory, where the central part of the region was first covered with snow, followed by the driest eastern part, in relatively calm weather the air temperature increased, an ice crust formed, and strong winds ceased to pose a threat to the fields. The snow remaining on them, when melting, will be able to saturate the soil. Low temperatures in the Central Federal District (for example, a drop in the thermometer to -37 ° C in the Tula region) also did not damage winter wheat: the height of the snow cover by this time had reached a meter here and protected the crops. The same applies to the Central Black Earth Region, the Northwestern Federal District, Siberia and most regions of Russia. The Republic of Tatarstan, Altai Territory and other regions with a sharply continental climate survived a typical winter - without serious anomalies and with normal precipitation. These conditions are already creating the preconditions for obtaining basic grain yields (up to 30 centners per hectare). But the increase in productivity will depend on summer rains, since moisture is traditionally in short supply here. As 2020 has shown, agricultural producers who are concerned with measures related to moisture preservation, such as switching to minimum tillage, using cover crops, and preserving crop residues, will have an advantage.
Nevertheless, due to the autumn drought, the agrarians who sowed winter rape found themselves in a situation of uncertainty: if winter wheat under such conditions can wait or go under the snow in the “slope” phase, overwinter and grow, then the rape often dies under such circumstances. The share of "lost" areas under the sowing of winter rape in the Southern Federal District may be about 50%, and the question of reseeding will have to be decided not only by farmers in the southern regions, but also by some farms in the North-West and Central Federal Districts. In general, experts of the company "August" predict that the acreage of rapeseed in Russia will continue to grow, but not as rapidly as in the past 5 years: in a number of regions, farmers will prefer to sow sunflower or oil flax instead, which showed high profitability after harvest 2020 year.
This spring may be protracted in many regions. If the soil warms up slowly, the sowing time will shift or it will fall into cold periods, which can also affect the potential yield. Potato growers faced such a problem last year, and this situation may repeat itself. When planted in cold soil, bacterial and fungal infections, which infest a significant part of the seed material, will develop rapidly, and under these conditions, fungicide treatment of the tubers themselves and planting furrows will be of particular importance.
Against the background of large volumes of snowfall, farmers may also face such a problem as damping of winter crops. The snow cover does not go away in one day, with night frosts, an ice crust may form, and if at this time the seedlings are already intensively developing, feeding and breathing, then the process of consumption of nutrients of the plant itself goes very quickly, while at low temperatures their consumption through the root the system is extremely limited. On weakened winter crops, snow mold, typhulosis mold, and sclerotinosis develop from under the snow cover. High humidity creates conditions for the appearance of powdery mildew and various types of root rot on winter and spring crops. In the Krasnodar Territory, many farms have already started feeding winter crops in order to prevent their weakening.
Crops of barley in a protracted spring are threatened by diseases such as brown spot and netted spot, and in order to prevent the development of infection, the first fungicidal treatment of seedlings should be carried out at the earliest possible stage - earlier than, for example, in the case of wheat.
“In 2020, some Russian regions received really large harvests for the first time, including by increasing the acreage,” says Dmitry Belov. - In the fall, we again observed a trend towards an increase in the area under winter crops. The yield per hectare is also growing, and taking into account the potential of many varieties, as well as weather factors, when favorable conditions for agriculture, along with warming, shift to the north, it becomes necessary to increase the frequency of treatments with agents against plant diseases - fungicides. After all, infections in the new conditions also begin to progress. "
For individual crops, due to their diseases and weather factors, it is possible to lose up to 20% of the yield, if measures are not taken in time to feed and protect plants. As for pests, the snow cover, which preserved the crops, also provided mild wintering conditions for insect adults and pupae. At the same time, experts note that the number of such pests as cabbage moth has decreased in 2020, in general, the dynamics of its population is declining, and this year it should not cause serious problems to either agricultural producers or beekeepers who are forced to limit the flight of insects. when processing fields.
"I would like to hope that this year we will bypass the April frosts in the Southern Federal District, as it threatens to damage well-developed winter wheat crops, as well as the buds in apple orchards, which negatively affects the quality and quantity of apples and, accordingly, their price in the future." , - adds Dmitry Belov.
Among the factors that may indirectly affect the harvest, experts say the introduction of quotas and duties on the export of wheat, rye, corn and barley, as well as oilseeds. A number of farmers and specialists have already announced a possible reduction in the area under cereals. However, wheat in Russian agricultural firms accounts for 50% or more of all sown areas, and in 2021 the room for maneuver for large farmers will be narrowed due to the formed parks of specialized agricultural machinery and equipment, the peculiarities of crop rotation and other factors. But in the future, market restrictions may have a more serious impact on the crop structure.
The prices for vegetable products in the 2020/2021 agricultural season may also be affected by the difficulties with the movement of foreign labor to the Russian fields due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. “If there are prerequisites for this, I would suggest sending students to the fields of agricultural universities, including all faculties, - as they say, to smell gunpowder,” says Dmitry Belov. "Such field practice, in turn, can become an impetus for the development of innovations: future specialists, seeing how difficult the work of a field grower is, will think about how to simplify and improve it."