Specialists of the Expert and Analytical Center for Agribusiness "AB-Center" the www.ab-centre.r подготовили marketing research of the Russian potato market. Below are some excerpts from the work on the regional potato trade.
This material presents estimated data on the volumes of production, consumption and balance of regional markets for potatoes of industrial cultivation.
The rating of donor regions and recipient regions for potatoes is presented.
Donor region - a region where the volume of production exceeds the volume of consumption. The recipient region is a region where the volume of production is lower than the volume of consumption.
For a more objective assessment, the study provides average annual indicators for 2016-2020, since data for a longer period most accurately reflect the real needs of the regions for this product. The influence of climatic and other factors is excluded (for example, a drop in production due to drought in 2010, overproduction of potatoes in 2015).
In preparing the material, data on the average annual population by region (for 2016-2020) were used, as well as the following estimated market indicators:
— Average annual production potatoes of industrial cultivation in 2016-2020 amounted to 7 thousand tons.
— Average annual import volumes, taking into account the volume of imports from the countries of the Customs Union of the EAEU, were at the level of 573,1 thousand tons.
— Average annual export volumes potatoes from Russia for the period under review amounted to 236,7 thousand tons.
— Average annual market volume potatoes/average annual consumption (total production and imports less exports) 2016-2020 were at the level of 7365,9 thousand tons - excluding losses during transportation and storage.
— Average annual supply potatoes of industrial cultivation per capita (excluding losses during transportation and storage, taking into account the volumes received for processing) in 2016-2020 amounted to 50,2 kg.
Among all the federal districts of Russia, the volume of potato production exceeds the volume of consumption only in the Central Federal District - by 860,3 thousand tons and in the Ural Federal District - by 65,9 thousand tons (these are donor districts).
At the same time, potato consumption in the Central Federal District amounted to 1 thousand tons, production - 973,2 thousand tons. Among the regions of the Central Federal District there are 2 donor regions and 833,5 recipient regions. The largest donor region is the Bryansk region, the key recipient region is Moscow.
The self-sufficiency of the Central Federal District for potatoes for the considered five-year period (2016-2020) was on average at the level of 143,6%.
Self-sufficiency refers to the ratio of production to consumption in percentage terms.
In the Ural Federal District, consumption was at the level of 619,9 thousand tons, production - 685,8 thousand tons. At the same time, there is only one recipient region in the district - the Chelyabinsk region, with a shortage of potatoes of its own production at the level of 58,9 thousand tons.
In other regions of the Ural Federal District (Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen regions), production volumes exceed consumption volumes.
The self-sufficiency of the Ural Federal District for potatoes is 110,6%.
The largest shortage of locally produced potatoes has developed in the North-Western and Far Eastern Federal Districts - 348,5 and 202,3 thousand tons, respectively.
However, not all regions of the recipient districts experience a shortage of local production. So, in the Novgorod and Pskov regions there is a surplus, the Kaliningrad region is also generally self-sufficient. The overall deficit in the Northwestern Federal District is created due to the excess of consumption volumes over production volumes in other regions of the district. In addition, consumption volumes are high in St. Petersburg (268,3 thousand tons per year).
As for the Far Eastern Federal District, only in the Sakhalin Region and in the Kamchatka Territory the volume of production exceeds the volume of consumption - by 22,2 thousand tons and 0,4 thousand tons, respectively.
Next in terms of the deficit of local production, the Siberian Federal District follows - 191,7 thousand tons, self-sufficiency of the district in potatoes is at 77,8%.
Slightly lower indicators are in the North Caucasian Federal District - 178,0 thousand tons. The overall level of self-sufficiency here is 64,0%.
This is followed by the Southern Federal District, where there is a deficit of local production at the level of 171,4 thousand tons, self-sufficiency is 79,2%. There is only one donor region in the Southern Federal District - the Astrakhan region.
In the Volga Federal District, the market balance as a whole is also negative. The deficit of local production is 170,7 thousand tons, and self-sufficiency is at the level of 88,5%. At the same time, there are 5 donor regions for potatoes in the Volga Federal District, and three of them have a high regional export potential - the Nizhny Novgorod region, the Chuvash and Udmurt republics.
According to the study, in 30 regions of Russia, the production of industrial potatoes exceeds the annual consumption.
The largest donor region is the Bryansk region. Average annual production in 2016-2020 here amounted to 850,4 thousand tons, consumption, according to AB-Center, is at the level of 60,5 thousand tons. The region has the ability to supply 789,8 thousand tons of potatoes outside its borders (this is more than the annual needs of Moscow). The self-sufficiency of the Bryansk region in potatoes is 1%.
In second place is the Tula region, where they consume 74,4 thousand tons of industrial potatoes with an average annual production of 534,3 thousand tons. The region has the ability to supply 459,8 thousand tons of potatoes outside its borders, self-sufficiency is at 717,7%.
In third place among the donor regions for potatoes is the Astrakhan region with a positive market balance of 254,7 thousand tons and self-sufficiency of 600,8%. About 50,9 thousand tons of industrial potatoes are consumed in the region, and 305,5 thousand tons are produced.
However, it should be borne in mind that almost all potatoes grown in the Astrakhan region are early potatoes, which are harvested in the second half of June - July. Young potatoes, in the conditions of high seasonal prices for this product in this period, are not stored in storage, but are sold immediately after harvest. In general, during the off-season, a region may not be a donor region, but a recipient region.
The fourth place among potato donor regions, according to AB-Center, belongs to the Nizhny Novgorod region. The volume of consumption here is at the level of 161,8 thousand tons, the volume of production is 413,4 thousand tons. The volume of potential regional exports is 251,6 thousand tons. Self-sufficiency of the region in potatoes is 255,4%.
The Lipetsk region closes the top five largest donor regions. With a consumption volume of 57,6 thousand tons, 169,7 thousand tons of potatoes are produced here. The potential volume of deliveries to other regions of the Russian Federation is estimated at 112,2 thousand tons, self-sufficiency is 294,9%.
It should be noted that, including in donor regions, in order to reduce costs per unit area and increase the volume and quality of the crop, farms increasingly use drip irrigation systems when growing potatoes.
The TOP-10 regions with the largest surplus of local production also include the Chuvash Republic, Tver, Ryazan, Novgorod and Tambov regions.
In 52 regions of the Russian Federation, there is a shortage of local industrial potatoes.
The largest recipient region is Moscow. The average annual needs of the capital in potatoes are estimated by the Expert and Analytical Center for Agribusiness "AB-Center" at 629,3 thousand tons. Deliveries to Moscow are carried out mainly from the Bryansk, Tula, Lipetsk, Tver, Tambov regions, some other regions of the Central Federal District, as well as from the Volga Federal District (Nizhny Novgorod Region, the Chuvash Republic, and other regions). In the off-season (especially April-June) - imports are carried out from Egypt, Israel, Azerbaijan, and some other countries. Deliveries from Belarus are at high levels (carried out both in the harvest season and in the off-season). In June-July, Russian-made early potatoes are imported (mainly from the Krasnodar Territory and Astrakhan Region).
In second place is St. Petersburg with annual needs at the level of 268,3 thousand tons. Deliveries of potatoes to St. Petersburg are also carried out from the regions of the Central Federal District, the Southern Federal District and from abroad.
The third place among the recipient regions belongs to the Krasnodar Territory. The average annual volume of industrial production here is only 98,4 thousand tons. The volume of consumption is estimated at 282,1 thousand tons. The region's needs for supplies from outside, according to AB-Center, amount to 183,8 thousand tons.
The fourth place among the regions of recipients is the Republic of Bashkortostan, the fifth is the Republic of Dagestan.
The top ten regions with the highest shortage of locally produced potatoes also include the Saratov Region, the Republic of Crimea, the Novosibirsk Region, the Chechen Republic and the Perm Territory.