The actions of authorities to prevent floods can lead to a shortage of irrigation water in the summer. Given this risk, farmers are preparing to reduce sowing areas.
And first of all, we are talking about potatoes. As a result, in the fall the harvest of the “second bread” will be more than modest, and prices will set new records.
The largest agricultural organization in the Karaganda region, Shakhterskoye LLP, is planning spring sowing on an area of 37 hectares. Most of the arable land will be, of course, wheat. The rest is oilseeds, legumes, forage crops. Also three years ago, several hundred hectares of irrigated land were introduced here, on which potatoes are grown.
The director of the farm, Georgy Prokop, says that the winter turned out to be meager for precipitation. There was two or three times less snow in the fields than last season. Therefore, this spring's strategy is to keep melt water in the soil. To do this, you will have to use all the possibilities of modern agricultural technologies. The main thing is to do intermediate processing of the fields, the so-called "moisture closure". Plus, carry out a pre-sowing chemical treatment of arable land to prevent the development of weeds that can draw water out of the ground. This is a chance to get good strong shoots.
George Prokop
“Making forecasts is a thankless job,” says Georgy Prokop. - There are many factors, both positive and negative, for the prospects for the harvest. For example, it is encouraging that in the fall it did rain, and some kind of moisture recharge of the soil occurred. Another question is whether the water froze over the winter, since temperatures were low and the snow cover was not high. Much depends on how the snow melts in the fields now. We hope that the melt water will not leave, but will be absorbed into the ground. It is getting warmer now gradually, which is good. But the minus is that at night the temperatures are still negative, and the moisture accumulated during the day freezes overnight. So it is not yet clear what conditions will prevail by the beginning of sowing.
Of course, farmers remain optimistic and look forward to a better outcome. Moreover, weather forecasters give a good forecast: in April they promise good precipitation, in May, although it is not heavy, it rains. As for June and July, they are predicted to be cool and rainy. This gives hope that an average crop can be obtained - subject to agricultural technologies. And of course, it is important to take into account which cultures can show themselves in the current conditions.
As for the legumes (at Shakhtyorskoye they cultivate chickpeas), it is encouraging that May is promised to be warm. This is very important for strong seedlings. Last year I let the peasants down for six months, it was cold until June 10. This led to the fact that chickpea seedlings were sparse, development at the beginning of growth was inhibited. The plants grew low, and the harvest did not please - only about 6 centners per hectare. That is, it didn’t even reach the average.
For oilseeds, the situation may be different. At Shakhtar, safflower is grown; it is more resistant to lack of moisture. But flax may suffer from drought, because it needs more precipitation.
For potatoes, the weather forecast is favorable in the sense that the cool start of summer will allow tubers to develop. After all, in extreme heat, they hibernate and do not grow.
As for irrigation, there are doubts - it is important that the reservoirs accumulate a sufficient supply of water.
- We water our irrigated fields from Nura, - says George Prokop. - It is replenished from the Samarkand reservoir. But even if there is not enough water there, we can hedge and take water from the Irtysh-Karaganda canal. But in the Abay district there are no options, they depend on the Zhartassky reservoir. If he is not recruited, they simply will not be poured from where.
But the thing is: to minimize the risk of flooding of nearby villages, the task was set to keep the water bodies at the minimum acceptable level during the period of active snowmelt.
The Samarkand reservoir, the largest in the Karaganda region, causes the greatest concern for the authorities during floods. Now the reservoir of the reservoir is discharging into the Nura River in the volume of 33 cubic meters per second, but it can be increased to 50 - 60. At the same time, the replenishment of the reservoir during the flood is expected to amount to a little more than 500 million cubic meters. This is two times less than last season, when melting snow provided an inflow of 1 billion cubic meters. In this regard, the peasants are afraid that the authorities will be able to drain the water from the reservoir in the spring. Will there be anything to fill it with from the minimum (170 million cubic meters) to the optimal level (250 million)?
The same is true for other water bodies on which irrigated lands are tied. The greatest fears are among the agrarians of the Abay region. The main potato producers of the region are concentrated here. And they have the same source of water for irrigation - the Zhartas reservoir.
The largest potato farm in the Karaganda region, the Shans farm, last year planted tubers on 1000 hectares. The harvest was good - 320 centners per hectare at an average regional level of 250 centners / ha. In general, the region received a little more than 300 thousand tons of potatoes with its own demand of about 100 thousand tons. Such a "surplus" made it possible to carry out supplies both to other regions of the country and for export, to the same Uzbekistan.
However, this season promises to be difficult. Firstly, one cannot count on high yields. Secondly, the closer the spring strada, the stronger the farmers think about reducing the area.
Igor Zhabyak
- Lack of moisture for potato growers is even more dangerous than for grain crops, - says Igor Zhabyak, head of the Chance farm. - A snowy winter raises questions for us: will the reservoirs be sufficiently replenished so that in summer we have enough water for irrigation. We need only water for the crop. And everything else we have - seeds, technology, technology. But if we see the risk of lack of water for irrigation, we will be forced to hedge and dramatically reduce the area. To plant so that it dries in the summer, no one will.
According to Igor Zhabyak, the Abay region over the summer consumes 35–40 million cubic meters of water from the Zhartasskoye reservoir for irrigation. The same amount is needed for the current season. Whether it will depend on how the flood season goes.
- How many potatoes we will get in case of problems with watering, I cannot and do not want to, - says Igor Zhabyak. - But it is clear that the harvest will be below average. And of course, if the volume decrease will affect the price, it will rise. These are the laws of supply and demand. Now wholesalers take potatoes from us at 80–85 tenge per kilogram. What price will be in the fall, I do not presume to predict.
In the Karaganda branch of Kazvodkhoz they say that so far the situation with the passage of the flood season is unclear. High water will begin in early April, when night temperatures become positive. The exact volume of meltwater and filling of reservoirs can be discussed only in the middle of spring.
Source: https://forbes.kz