Frosts come to some Russian regions, heat and drought in others, and rains flood the third. How will natural anomalies affect the future potato harvest and market situation? On this topic, the columnist of our magazine spoke with agricultural producers in the North Caucasus, the Urals, central Russia and Siberia.
Yury Ushakov, KFH Ushakov Yu. G., Stavropol Territory
– In the new season, we slightly increased the area under crops. There was just seed potatoes left, grown to order, but not bought out by customers due to economic problems, we decided to use it.
The weather is not good this time either. During May and June, heavy rains fell in the region, late blight began on potatoes. The first week of July turned out to be dry, with a strong east wind, which is also a big problem for us. It remains to be hoped for milder weather before the end of summer, which will allow the tubers to gain weight and form a skin. And for a dry autumn to harvest on time.
Climatic conditions have not been in our favor for several years, and it is impossible to grow early potatoes. We are located in the Piedmont region, in the northern part of the Borgustanskaya village, at an altitude of 1,2-1,4 thousand meters above sea level. Spring here is cold, the earth warms up for a long time, so planting begins later.
In 2023, young potatoes from foreign suppliers were traditionally the first to appear in the region. And then the citizens of Krasnodar came to us en masse, and today their products are mainly represented on local markets. For the last couple of years, there has been no price even for an early harvest, and if Egyptian tubers were sold at 50-60 rubles per kilogram, sometimes even 80, now the wholesale cost of potatoes has dropped to 20 rubles.
According to my observations, the demand for culture continues to fall, and therefore dealers are more active. They go to Central Russia, where agricultural products are cheaper due to high competition, and then they deliver them to all regions. Now in the pricing policy we have to adjust to them, because we cannot work together with chain stores, primarily because of the lack of volumes.
Last year, there were no implementation problems at all, they began in January and February 2023. We sold our last potatoes in mid-April, after we sorted them for the third time. I think we need to be prepared for a repetition of that situation, but we will definitely overcome any difficulties.
Elena Shubina, IP Shubina E. S., Sverdlovsk region
– Today, the conditions for vegetable crops and potatoes can be called acceptable. But we are very concerned about what will happen in the coming months.
A year ago, the weather was ideal for potatoes: constant and heavy rains, moderate heat. We could not get enough of it, because the culture developed remarkably, and nothing foreshadowed trouble. And then came a severe drought. From mid-July and all of August there was not a single even the smallest rain. As a result, the growth of tubers stopped, and in the autumn the farm harvested the caliber, which is popularly called "peas". Despite the fact that so far everything is normal, you have to be careful in your forecasts.
In the region, early potatoes are already being sold with might and main, as far as I know, from the Astrakhan region and the Krasnodar Territory. Prices are about the same as last summer, nothing sensational. We plan to start digging our tubers in the first decade of September. We are also worried about whether they will flood us in the midst of cleaning, as our colleagues from other regions had in 2022.
The future sale of potatoes is also worrying. I no longer want to take half of the crop to a landfill, because there is no way to sell it, even at the lowest price. It seems that no one needed these products either in autumn, or in winter, or in spring. The farm has no contracts with retail chains, the intermediaries showed complete disinterest. Our regular business partners, to whom we sold vegetables and potatoes in previous years, refused to cooperate.
And yet, we did not reduce the area under cultivation, we left it at the same level. I can’t say that we are waiting for a favorable end to the season, but it’s not in vain that they say: “Hope dies last.”
We are staying afloat thanks to the successful and profitable 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, when high potato prices provided us with good revenue. For a kilogram of products on the wholesale market, they gave 30-40 rubles, and the funds set aside then allow us to continue our activities. However, we cannot afford either loans or major acquisitions, because we are well aware of the situation we are in. According to the results of the past season, the economy worked to zero or even a slight minus. Two or three more years like this, and our resources will be completely depleted, it will be impossible to survive.
Vladislav Golubtsov, IP Golubtsov V. A., Smolensk region
- The area under potatoes this year did not increase. It is not yet clear what the situation will be with sales, and the farm's storage capacity is limited.
Since the beginning of the season, we have been sorely lacking in rainfall, and the plants in the fields are clearly feeling the lack of moisture. This also applies to the main crop - potatoes, and those planted for crop rotation.
For two weeks at the junction of June and July, only two small rains fell, and before that we saw full-fledged precipitation for the last time on April 20. That is, in May and almost the whole of June, the drought persisted at daytime air temperatures above 25°C. Some spring crops did not have enough moisture even to just sprout.
Last year, the weather also let us down, but in a different way. It rained in May and June, while July and August were very hot with no precipitation at all. It rained after September 10, when the cleaning started, and this only complicated all the work for us.
We will find out how serious the damage is to potatoes now at the end of the season. Of course, the yield will no longer be the same as under favorable growing conditions. If during the second half of the summer the soil receives enough moisture, the situation can even out, and losses will be minimal.
We cannot compete with producers of early products, and when potatoes ripen in our fields, they are no longer very competitive. I am engaged in the sale of tubers in the fall, mainly through intermediaries, and put about 30% of the total volume into storage. This is our own seed fund, plus the so-called safety stock. In case the seeds do not store well, or I'm going to increase the area under the crop.
An increase in production up to 5-15% is possible if the previous potato crop is successfully sold. For example, I understand that we have enough money to build another warehouse. It is the additional storage capacity that gives the farm the opportunity to expand. Also, some new, interesting measures of state support can serve as an increase in potato areas. But here it is up to the authorities whether they want to help agricultural producers.
Pavel Shadrin, KFH Shadrin P. I., Altai Territory
- In our region, the weather does not contribute to farmers getting a good harvest. There was a serious drought both in spring and in the first month of summer. Only at the beginning of July did normal rains occur, moistening the soil. The 2022 season was more successful in this regard, but we will be able to compare the last two years only in the fall, at the end of the harvest.
Due to the peculiarities of the climate, all early potatoes are imported, mainly from the south of Russia. The pricing policy, it seems to me, differs little from last year.
Sales of local potatoes start in September and I market my products through intermediaries. Approximately half of the harvest is sold during the first month, and the other half is stored until the market offers better conditions. I try to finish sales before spring in order to have time to fully prepare for the new season.
In my farm, the area under the crop has remained the same, as in many potato growers of the region. But, in my opinion, no one expects that in 2023 the sub-sector will perform better than a year earlier. Alternatively, a repetition of the situation is possible, and we take this calmly. The agricultural sector is like this - a lot of work and a lot of risks.
Expert opinion:
Alexey Krasilnikov, Executive Director of the Union of Potato and Vegetable Market Participants of Russia (Potato Union)
- The area allotted in our country for vegetable crops remained at the level of the last season. Thus, according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation at the end of June, out of the 305 thousand hectares planned for the current year, 300 thousand hectares of potatoes were planted. If we draw parallels with 2022, this volume is quite enough to provide the population with these products.
Harvesting of early potatoes in the south of Russia is taking place in accordance with the usual schedule. Producers of the Kuban, Stavropol, Astrakhan, Rostov and Volgograd regions are ready to supply their products even to the most remote regions. We do not see any price imbalances, and so far the cost of potatoes is within the limits typical for the past year.
Products from the Kherson region, which allegedly provoked a collapse in prices in 2022, can also be found on the shelves today. But it is probably not worth expecting the import of large volumes of vegetables, primarily potatoes, from new Russian regions. On the contrary, at their expense, other producers will receive additional opportunities for marketing their goods.
As for imported potatoes, exports from Egypt to Russia this year have been halved. The reason was objective circumstances, but this allowed domestic potato growers to take a large market share.
Unfavorable climatic conditions will undoubtedly affect the results of the next season. If weather problems persist until the harvest itself, and farmers do not get a decent harvest, this can also be positive. Then the prices for agricultural products can be higher, and the profit compensates the producers for lost profits due to the decrease in the gross harvest.
Irina Berg