The experts who took part in the conference "Russian Crop Production" on March 10 differed in weather forecasts for the summer of this year, Interfax reports.
As Petr Chekmarev, chairman of the CCI committee on the development of the agro-industrial complex, said, weather conditions repeat every 12-13 years. “And 2023 falls into 2010-2011, in 2010 in the country (due to abnormal drought - IF) 61 million tons of grain was harvested,” he said. - If you count back further, to 1998-1999, then it was 47 million and 54 million tons. That is, according to the natural and climatic conditions of the 12-year cycle, we fall into a deep hole.”
At the same time, Lidia Tarasova, senior researcher at the Department of Agrometeorological Forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center, noted that “nobody has predicted an anomalous summer yet, the forecast will appear in early April.”
“In most of the territory of the Russian Federation, the moisture supply of agricultural crops is mainly formed due to winter precipitation and spring moisture reserves. So expecting a dry summer is a bit premature,” she said.
According to an employee of the Hydrometeorological Center, the abnormally hot years of 1998 and 2010 began with soil drought, when moisture reserves in the soil were moderate or insufficient in places. “And precisely because of the lack of soil moisture, 2010 was abnormally hot. It was programmed for the spring. This year, this is not expected, ”commented Tarasova.
According to the forecast of a specialist of the department of agrometeorological forecasts, soil drought is likely to continue in Altai. “But I want to emphasize that this is not an extreme phenomenon, but common for this territory. These are dry steppes,” Lidia Tarasova noted. “The same is true in Transbaikalia, where insufficient moisture reserves are expected, but this is climatically determined.”
At the same time, there is no shortage of soil moisture, which caused concern in a number of southern regions. “There were heavy rainfalls, and, in fact, we can say that there is no shortage of moisture,” the meteorologist said.
In general, according to the expert, the state of winter crops this year is expected to be at a good and satisfactory level. This was shown by the analysis of monoliths taken from the fields. Only in the North Caucasus, in Siberia and the Volga region this year, more than usual damage is expected. In the Rostov region, such unpleasant damage as bulging was noted, which is associated with a sharp drop in temperature. “There is a lot of damage in individual samples (monoliths - IF), but there are no critical values,” Tarasova said.