The final result in 2019 is 7,5 million tons of potatoes in the industrial sector. This is 5,5% (396,5 thousand tons) more than in 2018. Accordingly, the next season for agricultural producers is under the sign of overproduction with all the resulting difficulties.
Alexey Krasilnikov, Executive Director of the Potato Union of Russia
PRICES
In the first decade of February, potatoes in Central Russia and the Volga region are sold on average at 8–9 rubles / kg, that is, 15–20% cheaper than in the same period last year. While we do not see any prerequisites for a change in the situation: there are many products on the market.
IMPORT
Of the positive trends, it is worth noting that the volumes of imported table potatoes in Russia are still at a minimum level, although the supply of early products from Egypt, Azerbaijan, Israel, etc., of course, will still be.
Based on the data by the beginning of February, it can be assumed that the volume of the imported product, most likely, will not exceed last year's. Recall, according to Rosstat, in the season 2018/2019. import volumes of table potatoes to Russia fell by 45% - to 316 thousand tons (from 569 thousand tons in the 2017/2018 season).
Although one should not overestimate the significance of this fact: last year, the reduction in the supply of imported potatoes did not affect prices and the level of domestic sales.
EGYPT
Last year, the supply of Egyptian potatoes to our country decreased almost 3 times - from 359 to 127 thousand tons. The main reason is the poor harvest in Europe. Egyptian producers sent most of their production to high demand and high prices.
This year, the European market (primarily in Germany) is again experiencing a shortage of potatoes. Information is also being received on the shortage of crops in Cyprus, and this country traditionally supplies high-quality potatoes to the EU countries. Thus, there are prerequisites that the attention of Egyptian manufacturers will again be directed towards more profitable European markets.
AZERBAIJAN
The Potato Union is also closely monitoring the situation in Azerbaijan. In early February, the country's cabinet of ministers announced a decision to abolish import duties on seed potatoes in order to support early potato production. Azerbaijan applied similar measures before, but earlier no duties were charged on supplies in March, April and May. Starting this year, importers will be exempted from state duties from February to April. This means that the first crop of seeds imported duty-free in the country will be harvested not in May, but in April. Azerbaijani agricultural producers expect that a shift in terms (that is, an earlier start of work and getting into the optimal growing period for the crop) will help increase yields, reduce production costs for farmers and reduce the cost of early potatoes.
Let's not forget that the main buyer of early Azerbaijani potatoes is Russia. Last year, the volume of deliveries of potatoes from this country was less than usual: large export duties were in effect in Azerbaijan until April 30, so the authorities tried to stabilize prices on the domestic market. And in June, the niche of early potatoes in our country was occupied by domestic producers from the southern regions. This year, things can turn out differently.
CHINA
Separate line select China. Today, the press publishes a lot of information about the potential problems of Russia due to the cancellation of the supply of vegetables from this country. In reality, difficulties can arise only in the Far East and partly in Eastern Siberia; the lion's share of Chinese products was delivered there.
Unfortunately, directing the flow of vegetables and potatoes to the Far East from the European part of Russia is not easy.
EXPORT
According to the FCS, this season about 200 thousand tons of Russian table potatoes were delivered to Ukraine. And we are talking about direct deliveries to the country, excluding the regions of Donbass. This channel has helped many domestic potato growers to profitably sell their products.
Also, deliveries of table potatoes from Russia were carried out to the Republic of Moldova and Serbia, although not on such a scale. The development of cooperation with Moldova was hampered by ring rot - an object regulated for the Russian Federation, and quarantine for Moldova. For a significant number of consignments of Russian potatoes, the Rosselkhoznadzor did not issue phytosanitary certificates.
After analyzing the current situation, the Russian Agricultural Supervision this year plans to form a map of the spread of ring rot in the country, so that later, based on these data, decide on the issuance or non-issuance of phytosanitary certificates.
DELIVERY OF SEED POTATO FROM ABROAD
In the current season, questions about the supply of seed potatoes from EU countries are being tackled quite difficult. By early February, we can only speak with confidence about the supply of batches of seed from Finland. Germany also gives hope for an optimistic forecast. Rosselkhoznadzor specialists are already conducting laboratory tests of samples from lots intended for Russia. But the supply of seeds from the Netherlands is not yet clear.
The Rosselkhoz-supervision experts are waiting for an invitation for pre-shipment control, but the Netherlands so far is ready to offer only a systematic audit of seed potato production, without laboratory analysis of specific lots in Russian laboratories. Whether the parties will be able to agree is unknown. Moreover, the time to reach consensus remains catastrophically small. Representatives of breeding companies note that in this situation they do not exclude the possibility that lots formed for Russia will be redirected to other countries.
Let us not forget that a significant proportion of the seed material from the Netherlands is varieties for processing (and speaking of lots with minicubers, they are 100% varieties for industrial processing). Disruption in the supply of these parties can have a very negative impact on the long-term plans of Russian operators.
At about the same stage, the question is with the supply of seed potatoes from France. It is interesting that last year it occupied a very modest place among the suppliers of seed material to our country: imports amounted to only about 7 tons of potatoes. But in the current season, the volume of preliminary applications increased to 3 tons, about 000-5 Russian operators expressed their willingness to work with French material.
In addition to this, a number of German operators, whose varieties are grown in France, due to a number of reasons (in some cases - phytosanitary, in others - due to insufficient volumes in Germany) expressed a desire to switch to the supply of varieties to Russia from France. The French side has repeatedly assured that there will be no obstacles to the pre-shipment control, but at the moment no progress has been made in this direction. That is, the risk of supply disruption remains very high.
And in conclusion, a few words about the Republic of Belarus. Roughly, we expect the delivery of seed potatoes at the level of previous years: that is, 4-6 thousand tons.
NEW VARIETIES IN THE STATE REGISTRY
This season, a record early (December 20), a meeting of the expert commission on amendments to the State Register of selection achievements allowed for use was held.
For consideration were varieties of potatoes, vegetables and melons. Following the meeting, 30 new potato varieties were introduced to the State Register of the Russian Federation; three of them (Austin, Sorentina, Fontane) are intended for the processing sector. Five varieties (Indigo, Carmen, Lux, Prime, Red Scarlett), included in the State Register earlier, expanded the range of regions of use.
GROWING AREAS
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation currently predicts that the area under potatoes in the industrial sector of Russia in the new season will remain at the level of last year. At the same time, experts take into account that some of the agricultural enterprises after another, not very profitable year for potato growers, will abandon the cultivation of crops or reduce the volume of its production. But in parallel with this, the area of production of potatoes for processing will grow - at the request of actively developing enterprises (Belaya Dacha, Agrico, etc.).