The analysis of climate data and prognostic developments of scientific research institutions of Roshydromet (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, GGO named after A.I. Voeikov, AANII, FERHMI), carried out at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, allows us to conclude with a probability of 65-70% that in most of the territory of Russia in April-September 2022, temperatures are expected to be near and above the long-term averages.
So, in April the average monthly temperature above the norm is expected in the east of the Northwestern Federal District, in most of the Central Federal District, in the Volga and Ural Federal Districts, in the southwestern and central regions of the Siberian Federal District, in the Trans-Baikal Territory, the Amur Region, in the south of Yakutia.
Precipitation deficit this month is most likely in a number of regions of the Central, Volga, Ural and Siberian federal districts, in the Magadan region, in Chukotka and in most of Kamchatka. Precipitation excess is expected in the east of the Southern and Northwestern federal districts, in the north of the Ural and Siberian federal districts, and in the northwest of Yakutia.
More precipitation than in April last year is expected in the Komi Republic, in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory; smaller - in the south of the Central Federal District, in Khakassia, in the south of the Magadan region and in the north of Kamchatka.
In May the average monthly temperature above the norm is expected in the east of the Northwestern Federal District, in the north of the Volga Federal District and in most of the Urals Federal District.
Precipitation deficiency is most likely in the south of the Central and North Caucasian Federal Districts, in the extreme south of the Volga Federal District, in Buryatia, in the Trans-Baikal and Primorsky Territories.
Monthly precipitation above the norm is expected in the northeast of the Urals Federal District, in the north of the Siberian Federal District, in the northern and central regions of Yakutia.
The average temperature below May 2021 is expected in the south of the Urals Federal District, in Taimyr, in the north of Yakutia.
Less than last year, the amount of precipitation is expected in the western regions of the Northwestern Federal District, in the south of the Central Federal District, in the extreme south of the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts; more - in the west of Yakutia.
In June the average monthly temperature above the norm is expected in the east of the Northwestern Federal District, in most of the Urals Federal District, in the north of the Siberian Federal District and in the west of Yakutia.
Precipitation deficiency is most likely in the western regions of the Northwestern Federal District, in the North Caucasian Federal District, in the southern regions of the Southern Federal District, in Taimyr, in the west of Yakutia and in Kamchatka.
Excess precipitation is expected in the south of the Khabarovsk Territory and in the adjacent areas of neighboring regions.
The average air temperature below June 2021 is expected in the western regions of the Northwestern Federal District, in the north of the Central Federal District, in most of the Volga Federal District, in most of Yakutia.
Less than last year, the amount of precipitation is expected in the west of the Southern Federal District, in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, in most of Transbaikalia; more - in the south-east of Yakutia.
In July the average temperature above the norm is expected in the north of the Urals Federal District, in the northern half of the Siberian Federal District and in the west of Yakutia.
A precipitation deficit is expected in the south and west of the Central Federal District, in the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, in Altai, in the northeast of Yakutia and in Chukotka. Above average monthly rainfall is most likely in Primorsky Krai.
It will be colder than in July 2021 in the western regions of the Northwestern Federal District, in the Central Federal District, in the north of the Southern Federal District and in most of the Volga Federal District. But in the north of the Urals Federal District, temperature indicators are expected to be higher than last year.
More than last year, the amount of precipitation is expected in Primorsky Krai.
In August the average monthly temperature above the norm is expected in the west of the Central and Southern Federal Districts, in the southeast of the Siberian Federal District, in Buryatia and in the Trans-Baikal Territory.
Precipitation deficit is expected in the west of the Central Federal District, in Taimyr. Excess precipitation is most likely in the southeast of the Urals Federal District, in the southwest of the Siberian Federal District, in the southern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and in Kamchatka.
Colder than in August 2021 is expected in the east of the Central and Southern Federal Districts, in the Volga Federal District and in the south of the Urals Federal District.
Less than last year, the amount of precipitation is expected in the southwest of the Northwestern Federal District, in the west of the Southern Federal District; more - in most of the Volga Federal District, in the south of the Ural Federal District, in the north of the Irkutsk Region and the Khabarovsk Territory, in the Primorsky Territory, in Kamchatka.
In September the average monthly temperature above the norm is most likely in the Central and Volga Federal Districts and in the north of the Southern Federal District.
A precipitation deficit is expected in the northern half of the Central Federal District, in the northwest of the Volga Federal District, as well as in the south of the Northwestern Federal District, in the north of the Khabarovsk Territory, in the south of the Magadan Region and in Kamchatka.
Excess precipitation is most likely in the northeast of Yakutia.
Higher than in September 2021, the average air temperature is expected in most of the Central, Volga and Southern federal districts. Less than last year, the amount of precipitation is expected in most of the Central and Southern federal districts, as well as in Transbaikalia; more - in the western and northern regions of Yakutia.
During the warm period of 2022, the probabilistic forecast will be adjusted by monthly, ten-day and short-term weather forecasts.