On June 16, a report was published by a group of Russian and European scientists (representatives of Russia, Great Britain, France, Holland, Germany and Switzerland), who investigated the causes of the anomalous "heat wave" in Siberia in January-June this year. The work of the group took place within the framework of the United Nations Environment Program and was attended by members of the International Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC). The researchers came to the conclusion that the main cause of the "Siberian heat" is man-made factors and the results of human industrial activity.
On June 20 this year, the air temperature in Siberian Verkhoyansk, which is one of the centers of cold on the planet, rose to + 38 ° C. The average temperature in Siberia from January to June exceeded the corresponding average for 1981-2010 by 5 degrees. This is the highest figure for 130 years of observation.
Within the framework of the World Weather Attribution program, scientists using climate modeling have found out that such a unique “heat wave” could have formed in Siberia in the absence of man-made factors once every 80 years. Given the huge greenhouse gas emissions, such phenomena are likely to recur even until the end of this century.
By the method of mathematical modeling, the experts calculated that in those 5 degrees of excess of the temperature norm for 130 years, at least 2 degrees are “obliged” to technogenic factors. In 1900, the impact of the “Siberian heat” would be 2 degrees weaker than in January-June 2020.
The Siberian heat will have a significant negative impact on the environment in this region. It will accelerate the thawing of permafrost in the polar regions, lead to the depletion of forests and other vegetation, the emergence of massive forest fires, the emergence of huge populations of insects, and will cause other cataclysms. Partly the heat in Siberia has already created the conditions for an environmental disaster: in May of this year, due to thawing of the soil and subsequent fractures in oil storage facilities in the Norilsk region, more than 20 tons of diesel fuel were released into the river system of Siberia. Currently, there is a forest burning in large areas.
Scientists emphasize that the most important task now is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It is because of them that the total temperature on the planet by the end of the XXI century can increase within 2 degrees, which will lead to severe consequences for the Earth's ecosystem.